PUBLIC DATA / EXPLAINED
Sources & methodology
Product documentation · Updated
Every signal starts with a public observation and an explicit rule. This page explains how to check the source, understand a color and recognize the limits of the dashboard.
What the dashboard monitors
| Observation | Source / timing | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | Cboe historical daily close | Equity volatility context; default rules at 20 and 30. |
| 3-month Treasury yield | Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED, DGS3MO; daily | Interest-rate context. A yield is not a direct liquidity measure. |
| Funding stress | OFR Financial Stress Index; two-business-day publication lag | The funding category contribution is a broad proxy. No default alert threshold is applied. |
| Quarterly free cash flow | SEC EDGAR company filings | Company operating cash flow less capital expenditure; quarter-over-quarter comparison where comparable. |
| Gold and silver | Gold API; checked every 30 seconds | USD per troy ounce; compare with a level you set. |
Default rules and colors
VIX below 20 is Normal, from 20 to below 30 is Watch, and at least 30 is Alert. A quarterly FCF decline of at least 20% triggers Watch; a decline of at least 40%, or negative quarterly FCF, triggers Alert. These thresholds are Shield product heuristics, not official danger classifications or probabilities of a crisis.
A personal price rule triggers Alert when the observed price reaches your selected level in your chosen direction. Watch means the price is within the 2% proximity band. Rules appear in the dashboard and alert center; this version does not send email or push alerts. Optional in-page sound can be enabled in the console. You can change your personal FCF decline threshold in the watchlist.
Quarterly cash-flow calculation
FCF = operating cash flow − capital expenditure. When the filing gives fiscal year-to-date values, subtract the preceding cumulative period to isolate one quarter. The quarter-over-quarter percentage is calculated only when the previous quarter has positive FCF. A zero, negative or missing comparison base is N/M. Fiscal periods, seasonality and company-specific accounting can affect comparisons.
Freshness and unavailable data
Read each observation's as-of date; the source-check time is not the observation date. The console checks its cached observations every five seconds by default. Non-metal sources are checked every six hours. Daily observations older than five calendar days and metal quotes older than two minutes are marked stale, including some closed-market periods. Stock prices need a connected provider and may be unavailable. Direct Treasury bid–ask and depth data are not connected.
Missing, stale or non-comparable observations are Unknown, not Normal. Rule counts summarize the available rules and are not a comprehensive assessment of financial-system health. These measures are not combined into a predictive risk score.
Check a signal yourself
- Check the instrument, units and as-of date on the risk dashboard.
- Open the linked original data or filing and confirm the period.
- Compare the observation with the documented rule, then consider the source limitations.
Read more about VIX volatility alerts and free cash flow decline alerts.
Explore the OFR funding stress monitor and the 3 month Treasury yield dashboard for indicator-specific context.